The 2024 severe weather season is upon us across the United States, and we have experienced periods of active severe weather since late February. In April, 14 out of its 20 days featured at least a Slight risk in some portions of the nation, with Moderate risks issued 3 times. March was also a relatively active month, with 14 out of 31 days featuring at least a Day 1 Slight risk from the SPC.
Despite the numerous risk days, severe weather reports are running near average. While tornado and hail reports are running near to slightly below average, wind reports are slightly above average for this time of year. However, those numbers could be about to increase as we head late into April and early May.
(TORNADO REPORTS COMPARED TO NORMAL)
In the short term, troughiness is forecast to remain across the eastern and northern portions of the United States. This will allow for chilly, dry air to intrude the Midwest region, dropping low temperatures into the 20s and 30s tonight and tomorrow night. This has prompted local National Weather Service offices to issue Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for portions of the region tonight into tomorrow morning!
While troughing will continue through mid-week across the central and eastern U.S., the pattern is forecast to shift mid to late week as upper-level ridging moves east, allowing for warmer, moist air to move across the central and eastern U.S. with it. Upper-level troughing will focus back out into the western portions of the United States, which means cooler, drier air for places out west. However, this is also a textbook weather pattern for Spring severe weather to emerge across the heartland of the nation.
(UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES DAYS 1-5 & 5-10)
Data for late this upcoming week and into the weekend suggests that a few potent upper-level troughs will move into the southwestern United States, making their way across the Great Plains and Midwest states. As they do, strong winds aloft will couple with instability, creating the possibility of daily severe weather chances for portions of the U.S.
Not only do meteorologists see the upcoming shift toward an active pattern, but so does forecast data. GFS Ensemble data shows areas with a 45-85% probability of Supercell Composite Parameters (SCP) greater than 5 from April 25th to April 28th.
(GEFS SCP PROB OF GREATER THAN 5)
Forecasts and data from the Storm Prediction Center, CIPS analog Guidance, and Colorado State’s Machine-Learning Model show increased severe weather probabilities on days 6-8. While there are still many details to be worked out as we get closer to the forecast period, the overall idea is that a stretch of active and potentially impactful severe weather is expected as we head towards the end of April. We will continue to monitor data throughout the week, so make sure to check back with us!
(CIPS ANALOG/CSU/SPC COMPARISON)
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