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Meteorologist Joseph Cooper

Winter Folklore: Can You Predict the Season?

Updated: Nov 4

As published in Snow Magazine September 2024


Discover the truth behind winter weather predictions using old-wives' tales like woolly worm colors and persimmon seeds. Explore the folklore and learn if these methods hold any weight in predicting the upcoming season.


 


September has arrived, and with it, we bid adieu to summer and say hello to fall. In fact, meteorological fall begins on September 1st. For many people, fall is the season for pumpkin picking at the orchard, leaf peeping as the colors emerge, and enjoying hot cider around a campfire. However, for those in the professional snow and ice management industry, discussions center on what Old Man Winter has in store for us this season. It’s vital for operations and planning, but let’s admit it—it’s also fun to discuss what we think the forecast holds.


While we can certainly sit around and discuss weather forecast models, seasonal patterns, and oscillations, it’s far more enjoyable to turn to nature and old weather folklore to determine what lies ahead for winter. Today, let’s explore a few of these old-wives’ tales and discuss whether we can rely on them to predict the upcoming winter.


Woolly Worm Colors

One of the most recognized prognosticators of the winter ahead is the Woolly Worm, or the Woolly Bear Caterpillar (Pyrrharctia Isabella) to be scientifically precise. These caterpillars are the larvae of the Isabella moth and are generally black with red/orange coloration in the middle.



As the saying goes, the blacker you see on the woolly worm, the harsher the winter will be, while red/brown indicates a mild winter. However, if you find a woolly worm that is all white, that means a snowy winter season lies ahead.


Overall, the credibility of this forecast is low, but perhaps not totally without merit. According to research, the difference in coloration is caused by the age of the caterpillar and the wetness of the fall weather. Younger caterpillars and a wetter fall season often lead to more black coloring. While weather patterns are ever-changing, if the wetter fall pattern sticks around into winter, it could theoretically lead to more precipitation and greater snowfall chances.


Persimmon Seeds

Growing up in the Midwest, perhaps the persimmon seed is the most storied teller of the winter ahead. As the tale goes, if you slice a persimmon seed in half, it will reveal either a fork, spoon, or knife. If the seed reveals a spoon, there will be lots of snow. A knife means it will be very cold, and a fork is indicative of a mild winter.



While there are no known origins of the persimmon seed’s forecasting abilities, it remains a classic year after year. There’s no data to prove or disprove that the persimmon seed can or can’t predict winter. However, a single tree can produce persimmon seeds with an assortment of forks, spoons, and knives.


A Squirrel's Nest

Many sayings revolve around squirrels when it comes to predicting winter. From their bushy tails to how much food they store, or whether they are fatter or thinner, these little creatures seem to hold clues about the upcoming season. One common belief is that the location of a squirrel’s nest can indicate the severity of winter. Nests built higher in the tree suggest a colder winter with more snow, while nests lower in the tree signal a milder winter.


The reasoning behind this lies in the shelter provided by the nest’s position. Higher nests, nestled among more branches and closer to the trunk, offer better protection from harsh winds and cold temperatures. In contrast, nests in the lower portion of the tree provide less shelter from winter weather.


Date of the First Snow

The date of the first snow is heralded by many as a harbinger of how many days it will snow this winter. There are several different ways to deduce this; here are just a couple.

The date of the first snowflakes will tell you how many times it will snow:

  • 1-10: Little snow

  • 11-20: Average snow

  • 21-31: Lots of snow


The date of the first snowflakes plus the number of days past the new moon tells how many times it will snow this winter:

  • 1-19: Little snow

  • 20-38: Average snow

  • 39 or more: Lots of snow


Many tales are passed down to help predict the weather, but Mother Nature remains unpredictable, throwing something new or unexpected at us year after year. While using these tales in conversation among friends and family is fun, when making high-cost decisions, having a trusted, experienced, and reliable meteorologist to help take the guesswork out is still the best resource.


 

Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.


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