A couple of weeks ago, we took a look at the Farmers' Almanac Winter 2024-2025 Outlook which called for a Wet Winter Wonderland. This week, we're looking at the newly-released OLD Farmer's Almanac winter outlook. This is an entirely separate publication and forecast, though the names are often associated. The publication claims to be right 80% of the time.
The Winter 2024-2025 forecast from the Old Farmer's Almanac calls for a "topsy-turvy" season, filled with unusual conditions for many parts of the country. First, let's take a look at the major factors that shaped this year's outlook:
Solar Maximum
The sun is reaching the maximum of Solar Cycle 25, meaning the sun's activity is intensely hot and stormy. High solar activity has historically been linked to warmer winter temperatures, on average, across Earth—although this relationship has become weaker in recent decades.
Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations
The Old Farmers' Almanac predicts that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be in a neutral phase or developing La Nina conditions. This is the most commonly known oscillation to many, but the forecast also accounts for trends in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Combinations of these factors can cause the Polar Vortex to make appearances in North America.
The Forecast
The Old Farmer's Almanac calls for an overall mild and less-snowy winter than usual for the majority of the country. It predicts an uneventful winter, free from the extreme conditions that we've seen the last few years. However, there will be exceptions. Let's dig into the regional outlooks:
Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
The Ohio Valley region is expected to be cold and snowy, with lake effect snowfall dominating the lower Great Lakes for wintry precipitation. The coldest periods are expected in early and late November, early December, and from late January into early February. February should feature the most significant below normal temperature anomalies. The snowiest periods will be in late December, from late January into early February, in late February, and mid-March.
Northeast
A "gentle" winter season is expected in the Northeast, with well above average temperatures and near to just below normal snowfall. Watch early December, mid-February, and early March for the most active patterns.
Central U.S.
In general, central portions of the country extending from the Dakotas southward to Texas, will experience a warmer than normal winter with drier conditions.
Intermountain Region
Stretching from Washington State to Nevada and eastward into western Colorado, the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are expected to see a snowy winter, without the frigid temperatures! Perfect for pulling those skis out of storage.
Southwest and Southeast U.S.
Both of these regions should see a wet winter, but with rainfall the primary precipitation type. Milder conditions are expected in "Dixie Alley" across the southeastern U.S, with cooler conditions for Florida and along the southeast coastline. Cooler conditions are also expected across much of Arizona and New Mexico.
Canada
Located further north? The Old Farmer's Almanac has you covered! The forecast predicts a winter with a “heart of cold,” forecasting big freezes and heavy snowfall in the central provinces. Milder and drier conditions are expected to the east and northwest.
The above forecast was released by the Old Farmer's Almanac and is NOT the official forecast of Thermodynamic Solutions ("TDS Weather"). Our official Winter Outlook will be issued the last week of October, with a sneak peek of what to expect in our Fall Outlook this Thursday, September 29th.
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
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