As we head into early autumn across the United States, we will start to see chilly shots of air arriving in the northern tier of the country, usually in association with a cold front and strong upper-level trough. Once the cold front moves through, a strong area of high pressure at the surface builds in to reinforce the chilly, dry air. As meteorologists, we start to watch out for several impactful types of weather including severe weather along the cold front, early frost or freeze potential, or areas of heavy rain. However, there is one spectacle we see across the Great Lakes late each summer into early fall as the cold air arrives over the still-warm waters of the lakes: waterspouts.
The Conditions
This weekend will provide ripe conditions for waterspout formation across many of the Great Lakes. This will be thanks to a strong, deep upper-level trough of low pressure that will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region from Friday into the weekend. Not only will this spread anomalously cool air at the surface, where high temperatures across the Midwest will run 10-15°F below average on Saturday, but it will also bring cold temperatures aloft under the upper-level low, with temperatures of 30-34°F at 850 mb.
850 mb Temperature Forecast For Saturday Afternoon
At the surface, the Great Lakes are still warm, with Lake Michigan, Huron, and Erie seeing temperatures of around 18-24°C (64-75°F). Lake Superior is a bit colder, with temperatures of 14-18°C (57-64°F). Regardless, the warm lake waters and cool air temperatures should prove conducive for waterspout development.
Lake Michigan & Lake Huron Water Temperatures in °C
What is a Waterspout?
Waterspouts are funnel-shaped columns of rotating air that descend from clouds over a body of water. Specifically, the term usually refers to a small, relatively weak rotating column of air over water beneath a cumulonimbus or towering cumulus cloud. These types of waterspouts form with light winds, so they don’t move quickly. While fair-weather waterspouts can move inland, they rapidly dissipate once they make landfall.
Waterspouts are divided into two categories: fair-weather waterspouts and tornadic waterspouts. Fair-weather waterspouts develop during conditions like this weekend when there are significant temperature differences between the air and water. These waterspouts can move inland, but rapidly dissipate once they do.
However, tornadic waterspouts are “tornadoes over water.” They are associated with parent supercells or severe thunderstorms and have the same characteristics as tornadoes on land. These types of waterspouts can make landfall and move inland for longer distances.
Waterspout Safety
While waterspouts are interesting to watch, they can be dangerous, especially if you are on the water! Make sure to stay safe if you see one by following these guidelines:
Listen for special marine warnings about waterspout sightings broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio.
Watch the sky for certain types of clouds. In the summer, with light winds, look for a possible waterspout underneath a line of cumulus clouds with dark, flat bases. Any time of the year, a thunderstorm or line of thunderstorms can produce very intense waterspouts.
If a waterspout is sighted, immediately head at a 90° angle from the apparent motion of the waterspout.
Never try to navigate through a waterspout. Although waterspouts are usually weaker than tornadoes, they can still produce significant damage to you and your boat.
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