After the Atlantic hurricane season got off to a bustling start with Hurricane Beryl, it has since become mostly quiet. Since Beryl made landfall in July along the Texas coast, only two other named storms have occurred. So far, the Atlantic has not been conducive to tropical development, thanks to wind shear and dry, dusty air.
However, we are still a couple of weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs in mid-September. The full Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30th. With plenty of warm waters across the tropical Atlantic and into the Gulf of Mexico, tropical activity could be supported well into the fall if atmospheric conditions become more favorable.
The calm season leaves many wondering if the United States will dodge what could have been an impactful hurricane season. While we can’t predict hurricanes and landfall weeks or months in advance, here is what we are seeing in the short term.
Over the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a couple of areas of interest. The primary focus will be across the Main Development Region (MDR) in the Atlantic, stretching towards the Leeward Islands, where there is a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next week. However, current forecast models suggest this area will remain weakly organized at best.
In the longer range, the Climate Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance of tropical development in week two, with areas of 40% chance of tropical development across portions of the Atlantic. For week three, a large portion of the Main Development Region (MDR) is outlined with a 40% probability of tropical development. Overall, weakening shear into week two could lead to greater tropical development potential, but areas of dry, dusty air could further inhibit or prohibit development. Greater probabilities and confidence exist into the week three period as data suggest dry air will be less of an issue.
Forecast model data shows an uptick in tropical activity into weeks two and three. Both GFS and EURO ensembles continue to depict the possibility of waves coming off the African coast, potentially developing into tropical depressions or organized tropical lows. The EURO ensemble places a 20-30% chance of Tropical Depression formation across the MDR into the Caribbean in the week two period.
While we are still too far out to determine how strong these potential storms could be or if they will have impacts on the United States, it is important to remember that hurricane season is far from over. While we have not witnessed an active season, we still have the peak ahead of us, and any shift in the pattern could result in a quick increase in tropical activity.
The TDS Weather mobile application is a great way to track the incoming tropical weather! The app allows you to check daily and hourly forecasts, monitor satellite and radar, receive alerts if impactful weather is headed your way, AND you can view NHC forecasts and tropical weather spaghetti models as shown below! Download it for FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store today.
Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tds.wx
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
コメント