After a period of quiet conditions across the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave is moving across Cuba and into the Bahamas today. This wave remains disorganized across the Caribbean early this afternoon and will organize little over the next 12-18 hours as it moves across Cuba.
However, the system is expected to move into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow morning. As it does, this wave is anticipated to better organize and strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby by tomorrow evening, with forecast maximum sustained winds of 40 mph by 8 PM EDT Saturday.
Current forecasts suggest that the Tropical Storm will track up the Gulf Coast of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday into Sunday before making landfall Sunday afternoon or evening near the Cedar Key – Homosassa Springs area. Depending on the exact track, an earlier landfall into the Florida Peninsula or a later one further west into the Big Bend area is possible.
The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that this system will make landfall as a strong Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Storm surge along the Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula is expected to be 1-3 feet.
In addition to the strong winds and storm surge, widespread heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding concerns. Approximately 4-8 inches of rain are expected across Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States this weekend into next week as the system moves through. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a widespread Slight risk of flooding for this period across portions of the southeast.
Recent data from the last 12-18 hours has shown better agreement regarding the track and intensity of this system. Most tropical models indicate that the system will cross the eastern Gulf and move into Florida this weekend, then continue along the GA/SC/NC coastline into next week. While a few outlier models still suggest the system could become a hurricane, most data indicate that it will remain a tropical storm, staying below hurricane criteria.
Changes are still anticipated to the forecast as we head through the weekend, so make sure to monitor the forecast for the latest information! The new TDS Weather mobile application is a great way to track the incoming tropical weather! The app allows you to check daily and hourly forecasts, monitor satellite and radar, receive alerts if impactful weather is headed your way, AND you can view NHC forecasts and tropical weather spaghetti models as shown below! Download it for FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store today.
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Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
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