After observing clouds and rain across the Ohio Valley this morning into the afternoon, skies have cleared over portions of Illinois and Indiana. Despite the early-day convention, this clearing has allowed the atmosphere to destabilize once again. At 4 pm EDT, more than 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE (instability) was in place across southern Indiana and much of central/southern Illinois. At the surface, a warm front extends across Illinois into southwestern Indiana.
While storms are expected to hold off across the IL/IN area into the early evening, development is anticipated across eastern Illinois and north-central Indiana closer to 6-8 pm. Throughout the rest of the evening, storms will continue to develop westward into central portions of Illinois, tracking to the south/southeast across central and southern portions of Indiana/Illinois and far western Ohio.
Between 10 pm and 12 am, storms will move into southeastern Illinois and southern Indiana. These storms will then push into northern portions of Kentucky closer to 12-2 am on Tuesday before sliding southeastward after 2-3 am.
The initial thunderstorms that develop this evening could become locally strong to severe across eastern Illinois and north-central Indiana. However, the greater severe weather risk will likely occur around 7-8 pm and beyond, as the storms move into an environment with more instability and wind shear across central/southern Illinois and the I-70 corridor south in Indiana. Severe storms will remain possible late this evening into the overnight hours across northern Kentucky.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted portions of central and southern Illinois, the southern half of Indiana, and northern Kentucky in a Slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5). The potential threats include:
Damaging winds
A few tornadoes (possible)
Hail
If you are in the Slight risk area, make sure to have a way to receive National Weather Service (NWS) weather alerts this evening into tonight! A great way to do that is to download the TDS Weather mobile app and have NWS alerts sent directly to your phone! Download it for FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store now!
Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tds.wx
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
Commentaires