After a significant round of storms on July 15th that produced 868 reports of damaging winds and 52 tornadoes, we have experienced a welcomed lull in activity across the Midwest. Over the next 2-3 days, high pressure will be in place across the region, bringing sunshine, mild temperatures, and pleasant conditions. However, don’t get too comfortable, because model data signals a change in the weather pattern next week.
(JULY 15, 2024 SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS)
Starting Monday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build across central and western portions of the United States. As it does, it will allow troughiness to reside across eastern portions of the country, bringing a northwest flow pattern across the Midwest by the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
In the summer, the northwest flow across the Midwest is a classic signal for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to form and move through the mid to upper-level flow. These complexes, or lines of thunderstorms, develop as mid to upper-level energy embedded in the Jetstream moves through a warm, humid, and unstable environment on the northern side of the upper-level ridging.
Forecast model data shows several waves of energy moving through the Midwest region next week. Each wave could potentially bring a round of rain, thunderstorms, and even severe weather back to the region.
(GFS MID-LEVEL ENERGY FORECAST 7/29 - 8/2/24)
On top of the strong to severe thunderstorm threat, these complexes of thunderstorms can bring swaths of heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding threats. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already highlighted portions of the Midwest at risk for heavy rainfall during the July 28th – 30th period.
(WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER DAY 3-7 HAZARDS FORECAST)
Keep in mind that while the larger-scale pattern looks favorable for more active weather, smaller details will need to be fine-tuned in the days and hours leading up to the forecast period. It’s these smaller details that will allow us to determine the location, timing, and threat next week.
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