The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a vision to be America's calm, clear, and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. Over the past two decades, it has made significant strides in tropical weather forecasting accuracy, cutting the 5-day annual average forecast track error from over 300 nautical miles in HALF down to less than 150 miles.
NHC Forecast Cone
Not only is the agency driven to improve accuracy of tropical storm and hurricane forecasts, it has also committed to better understanding social science and how to best communicate the associated wind risks for inland communities. As a result, the NHC has announced that it will begin issuing an experimental updated version of its forecast cone graphic on or around August 15, 2024.
The 5-day cone graphic will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings over inland areas for the continental United States. It formally included only coastal watches and warnings. It will also feature a fully transparent white cone color for the entire 5-day forecast instead of only days 4-5 being white. A comparison of the "old" (current) and "new" (experimental) forecast cone graphics is shown below.
On or around August 15th, the former (current) NHC forecast graphics will still be issued, but will be followed by the slightly-delayed (within 30 minutes) experimental version. The NHC will provide opportunities for feedback on the new graphics.
As always, the National Hurricane Center emphasizes that watch and warning information should take precedence over the cone placement itself. The cone only depicts the forecast path of the center of the storm, and does not take into account storm size or how far the damaging winds reach from its center.
International Tropical Cyclone Rainfall
The National Hurricane Center has also partnered with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to develop an experimental international tropical cyclone rainfall forecast graphic for the Caribbean and Central America for all active and potential tropical cyclones. An example image is below.
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