The Midwest was no stranger to severe weather this spring, and as we transition into summer, the threat continues. Tomorrow, a cold front will move south and southeast across the region, spanning from Michigan to Missouri and Iowa. This front will be the focal point for severe thunderstorm development.
At the upper levels, a robust 500 mb jet stream will be in place over the Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy associated with the jet stream is forecast to traverse the Midwest. Meanwhile, at 850 mb, a low-level jet will concentrate over Missouri, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana during the afternoon and evening, with winds ranging from 25 to 35 knots. These strong winds, associated with the jet streams will create an environment conducive to both supercell and multicell thunderstorms.
In addition to the favorable wind field, strong instability will build throughout the day ahead of the cold front. Abundant sunshine and a warm, moist environment will be in place. Dew points will rise into the mid-60s to nearly 70°F across parts of the Midwest.
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPERATURES)
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and western Illinois. A Slight risk extends from parts of Kansas northeastward into northern Indiana and southern Michigan. Damaging winds (75-95 mph possible in the Enhanced risk area) and large hail are the primary threats. Although isolated tornadoes are less likely, they cannot be ruled out, especially with initial supercell structures.
(THURSDAY SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK)
Expect initial thunderstorms to develop between 4-6 pm CDT (5-7 pm EDT) from southern Michigan westward into northern Illinois and eastern/southern Iowa. This timeframe is optimal for discrete or semi-discrete supercells.
Later in the evening, thunderstorms are likely to consolidate into a line as they continue south-southeast along the cold front, occurring around 8-10 pm CDT.
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