The Midwest has been no stranger to severe weather this year, and with another strong upper-level trough moving into the region, conditions are ripe for another round of severe weather. This afternoon, a very moist and unstable environment prevails across the Midwest. Afternoon mesoanalysis indicates 5000-7000 J/Kg of SBCAPE (Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy) across Iowa into Illinois. As the upper-level trough and surface cold front descend into this area of instability, thunderstorms are expected to form in eastern Iowa later today.
(SBCAPE VALUES AT 2 PM EDT)
Initially, storms may remain discrete in central/eastern Iowa and possibly northwestern Illinois between 3-7 pm CDT. However, as storms progress into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this evening (around 7-8 pm), they are likely to merge into a line moving across the region, reaching the Chicagoland area by 8-10 pm.
(6 PM CDT SIM RADAR)
(8 PM CDT SIM RADAR)
During the late evening and early morning hours, storms will move across northern and north-central Illinois, southwestern Michigan, and northern Indiana. These storms will continue south-southeastward across Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and northwestern Ohio overnight, reaching the I-70 corridor across eastern Illinois and central Indiana by 4-6 am Tuesday.
(TUE 12 AM EDT SIM RADAR)
Although storms will weaken as they move into the southern portions of the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning, strong to damaging winds, heavy rain, and lightning remain possible.
(TUE 4 AM EDT SIM RADAR)
The greatest risk of severe weather will be in eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southwestern Michigan from late afternoon today through the early overnight hours. Damaging winds pose the greatest hazard, with some instances of significant winds exceeding 75 mph in the greatest risk area. Additionally, there is also a threat of a few tornadoes and hail.
Keep an eye on weather updates, as uncertainties remain regarding the exact storm development this afternoon and the precise track of the line of severe thunderstorms this evening. If you live in the severe risk area, stay weather-aware!
Stay ahead of the severe weather threat with current radar, forecasts, and location-based NWS alerts, all on your phone! Download the TDS Weather APP FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store now!
Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tds.wx
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
コメント