Tropical Storm Beryl continues to bring damaging winds, heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes across eastern Texas, portions of western Louisiana, and Arkansas. The storm is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Depression late tonight into tomorrow morning.
(RADAR AND WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT 11:45 AM EDT)
The current projection from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the center of low pressure will move across Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, and northwest Ohio in the coming days. As a result, Beryl’s remnants will impact portions of the Midwest during the mid-weekend period.
Model data currently shows the area of low pressure arriving in southeastern Missouri mid to late afternoon on Tuesday, then traversing across the Ohio Valley region through late Wednesday afternoon before exiting to the northeast. With this movement, several different threats associated with the storm are expected.
Heavy Rainfall & Flooding
Although Beryl will weaken considerably as it moves through the Midwest, it will still carry ample moisture. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are forecast to increase to the 2-3” range as the heart of the moisture moves through later Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The focus of the heaviest rainfall is currently forecast across the following areas:
Southern Missouri
Southern, central, and eastern Illinois
Western and northwestern Indiana
Southern Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Approximately 2-4 inches of rain are expected in and around these locations. However, central and southern Indiana, northern Ohio, and western Kentucky are forecast to receive 1-2 inches of widespread rain.
For the areas experiencing the heaviest rainfall, flooding will be a concern. Flood Watches have already been issued across portions of Missouri, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined southeastern Missouri, central/southern Illinois, and western Indiana as having a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday, July 9th. On Wednesday, July 10th, this risk extends to northern Indiana, southern Michigan, and northern Ohio.
TUESDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
WEDNESDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
TORNADOES
The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl will move across the region tomorrow into Wednesday, strong wind shear will be present in the right-front quadrant of the low-pressure system. Bands of rain and storms spinning around the center of low pressure will encounter this area of significant wind shear, leading to localized spin-ups and tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has already placed a Marginal risk of severe weather across the following areas for Tuesday:
Southern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Southwest Ohio
Kentucky
TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Winds
Winds will intensify across the Ohio Valley region on Wednesday as the center of low pressure (formerly the eye of Tropical Storm Beryl) moves through. Sustained winds of 18-25 mph are possible across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan. However, some areas may experience higher gusts of 40-50 mph. Overall, widespread wind impacts are not currently expected.
HRRR FORECAST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
We will continue to monitor the forecast as we approach the next 24-36 hours, as it may change as the center of low pressure draws closer. Make sure to stay weather-aware in the coming days!
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Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
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