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  • Writer's pictureMeteorologist Joseph Cooper

Another Round Of Severe Weather Possible To Start The Weekend!

It’s been a long severe weather season for those across the nation’s heartland, and we continue to see additional threats emerging even as we head into this weekend. Today, an Enhanced risk of severe weather is focused across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, and far northwestern Missouri. However, as a short-wave trough moves out of the Great Plains into portions of the Midwest, the possibility of another round of severe weather will exist on Saturday.


(SPC DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 7TH)


Across portions of Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will be in place on Saturday. An area of low pressure will be moving across the region tomorrow afternoon into the evening along the frontal boundary. The boundary and the surface low will be focal points for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development, but outflow boundaries (OFBs) from Saturday morning convection could also become a focus for thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon and evening.


With thunderstorms developing, the ingredients for severe weather will be present too. Strong instability is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening across Missouri, with around 1600 J/kg in the St. Louis area and 3000-4000 J/kg in central Missouri. Strong low to upper-level winds will be in place in association with the jet stream, leading to wind shear as well.


(4-PANEL OF SURFACE DEW POINT/WINDS, 500 MB WINDS, 850 MB WINDS, & SBCAPE)


Current thinking suggests that storms will develop tomorrow afternoon and evening after 5-6 pm across the frontal boundary and lining OFBs across Missouri into western Illinois. These storms would move off to the southeast through the evening. Strong to damaging winds, instances of hail, and even a couple of tornadoes would be possible.



However, there are still some uncertainties regarding tomorrow afternoon and evening's severe weather, making the threat more conditional. A round of rain and storms will likely move across these same areas tonight into tomorrow. If rain and clouds linger later into the day on Saturday, instability and the placement of boundaries could be significantly altered, leading to a much lower, or perhaps even non-existent, severe weather threat. Overall, the forecast will need fine-tuning, and conditions should be monitored in the next 12-24 hours.



Remember, you can monitor the local forecast for your area through the weekend or

anytime with the TDS Weather App! The app allows you to check the hourly forecast, track storms on the radar, and receive alerts if impactful weather is headed your way. Download it for FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store!

 






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